Virtual Conclave

I Used AI to Run a Virtual Black Hat to Predict the Next Pope

UPDATE: This post is not an endorsement of betting and it is not meant to facilitate bets on the outcome of the Conclave. It is an application of techniques and practices in the field of COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE. Competitive Intelligence, as the name implies, is about honing a competitive edge and boosting one’s odds of creating a winning scenario. Unfortunately, the information in this post could be used for betting, but it is meant to be used by those in a position to influence the outcome of the Conclave to create their own win scenario and upset the likely outcomes examined here. Thus, the goal is to do the exact opposite of facilitating betting. Competitive Intelligence is about forming strategy.

ROMANS 12:12 “Rejoice in hope, endure in affliction, and persevere in prayer.”

Before my arrest, I worked in the field of competitive intelligence. Which can be defined as being an expert in anything, per the needs of your clients or the company you work for. When I was an analyst at the corporate law firm Haynes Boone, that research was specialized -- limited to the corporate law industry and competing law firms. Nonetheless, the projects ran the gamut from attorney backgrounds to researching developments in niche industries like tech and healthcare.

When I moved to LoneStar Analysis, the emphasis became far more technical because our main focus was on defense contracts. There was also a lot of hard analysis on corporate finances and analyzing costs. Mini-satellites and energy weapons. What's not to like?

While I was prison, AI exploded and now I find myself living in a world where I can run major simulations on X by asking Grok a few questions.

The big news this week is that Pope Francis has passed and there's going to be another conclave soon to pick his successor.

"Wouldn't it be great," I asked myself,"if we could run a black hat on the conclave to sort of game out who the next pope is likely to be?"

In competitive intelligence, a "black hat" is an event where you simulate a competitive bidding process between multiple companies. In the case of LoneStar, these opportunities were all defense contracts. Black hats are a lot of work because the simulation involves getting representatives from the client company you're working for in the room with representatives from their competitor or competitors. So it's kind of like a model UN only, one of the representatives isn't pretending -- he actually represents his company.

The roles of competitor bidders are usually played by people who have a deep knowledge of the workings of the companies they're being asked to represent. Sometimes they're people who retired from those companies, sometimes they're industry experts.

In order for the black hat to work, though, I had to do my part: meticulously researching every aspect of all companies involved from their tech, to their personnel, to their finances.

Based on my own experiences, I decided to do something similar with the upcoming conclave. Normally, this would be impossible to do on my own. But AI and Grok made it possible.

I've seen a number of analyses of the political and doctrinal leanings of the cardinals and thought it would be a good idea to map these out along with other relevant aspects like their age, home country, where they work now, and the strength of their Globalist backers. All these are factors that will likely come into play as the cardinals jockey to select the next pope.

Of course, doing this by myself would've taken longer than it would've taken for the conclave itself to conclude, so I asked Grok for major assists. Together, we've mapped all this data out. And because spreadsheets are awesome, that's how the information is presented:

Until I can get Substack to embed my file, there’s a more readable version here.

The second to last category, "Doctrinal Focus" comes from other analyses I've seen on the internet to compliment the deceptive "political alignment" category which is also floating around there.

That someone is "Conservative" is of course expected in a faith that, for example, traditionally eschews homosexual relations, advocates for regular church attendance, rejects abortion as a criminal murder, and preaches personal responsibility for sins. (Yes, these are all Conservative things) The issue with Francis' chaotic papacy are masked by mere political analyses. This second categorizing schema is much more likely to predict the movement of the cardinals in conclave.

Both are important, however, so we keep the political data as well. More is always better with data!

The final column has to do with Globalist connections and is a bit more qualitative than quantitative, but the analysis Grok comes up with is again at least plausible. I haven't had time to do a sanity check of my own, but I'll give Grok's own explanation right here:

Globalist Support Rating:

• 0 (Not at All): Traditionalists and conservatives who are likely to oppose globalist agendas (e.g., Raymond Leo Burke, Willem Jacobus Eijk).

• 1 (Unlikely): Conservatives with limited engagement in global structures (e.g., Timothy Michael Dolan, Romuald Kamiński).

• 2 (Neutral): Bergoglian pastoralists who may engage with global issues but are unlikely to support corrupt practices (e.g., Pietro Parolin, Sean Patrick O’Malley).

• 3 (Somewhat Likely): Peripheries cardinals from regions reliant on NGOs or international aid (e.g., Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi).

• 4 (Very Likely): Progressives with strong ties to global cooperation (e.g., Reinhard Marx, Robert Walter McElroy).

• Data Sources: Ratings are inferred from political alignment, doctrinal focus, regional context, and public statements, cross-referenced with analyses from The Times of London, The Pillar, and X posts.

Results of the Black Hat

Once all the data was input, I decided to have Grok do a black hat and simulate who would become our next pope.

The following are his results in italics. If you’re only interested in the results feel free to skip over the italicized text:

Setup for the Conclave Simulation

• Total Voting Cardinals: 135 (as of April 24, 2025, following Pope Francis’s death on April 21, 2025).

• Voting Rules (based on Universi Dominici Gregis):

  • A two-thirds supermajority is required to elect a pope. With 135 cardinals, this means a candidate needs 90 votes (since 135 × 2/3 = 90).

  • Voting occurs in rounds, with two ballots in the morning and two in the afternoon each day.

  • If no candidate achieves a two-thirds majority after three days (12 ballots), the process pauses for a day of prayer and reflection, and voting resumes.

  • After 33 or 34 ballots (depending on the number of cardinals), if no pope is elected, the rules allow for a simple majority vote (68 votes in this case) to elect the pope, though cardinals typically aim for broader consensus.

• Data Used:

  • Political Alignment: Very Liberal, Moderate Liberal, Moderate Conservative, Very Conservative.

  • Doctrinal Focus: Progressives (15), Bergoglian Pastoralists (53), Peripheries (39), Conservatives (25), Traditionalists (5) (as per the X post by @crawlings13).

  • Globalist Support Rating: On a 0-4 scale, indicating potential openness to globalist agendas, which may influence alliances or voting preferences (e.g., cardinals with higher ratings might align with those favoring global outreach).

• Simulation Assumptions:

  • Cardinals will initially vote based on their doctrinal focus, forming blocs (e.g., Progressives may rally behind a progressive candidate).

  • Political alignment will influence coalition-building (e.g., Very Liberals and Moderate Liberals may align more easily).

  • Globalist Support Rating will affect voting strategy—cardinals with higher ratings (3-4) may prioritize candidates who support global outreach, while those with lower ratings (0-1) may favor more insular, traditional candidates.

  • Over rounds, cardinals may shift votes to compromise candidates if their preferred candidate stalls, reflecting the conclave’s tendency toward consensus.

  • I’ll select a few “frontrunner” candidates based on prominence, doctrinal alignment, and regional representation, as these are often key factors in conclave dynamics.

Step 1: Identify Frontrunner Candidates

Based on the data, I’ll select a few cardinals as likely candidates, representing different factions and regions:

1. Matteo Zuppi (Italy):

   • Age: 69

   • Political Alignment: Very Liberal

   • Doctrinal Focus: Progressives

   • Globalist Support Rating: 4

   • Why: A prominent progressive, Zuppi is the Archbishop of Bologna and has been associated with Francis’s vision. He’s a strong candidate for Progressives and some Bergoglian Pastoralists.

2. Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines):

   • Age: 67

   • Political Alignment: Moderate Liberal

   • Doctrinal Focus: Bergoglian Pastoralists

   • Globalist Support Rating: 2

   • Why: Tagle, Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, is a well-known Francis appointee from Asia, appealing to Bergoglian Pastoralists and Peripheries.

3. Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson (Ghana):

   • Age: 76

   • Political Alignment: Moderate Liberal

   • Doctrinal Focus: Peripheries

   • Globalist Support Rating: 3

   • Why: Turkson represents the Global South, a key focus of Francis’s appointments, and could unite Peripheries and some Bergoglian Pastoralists.

4. Christoph Schönborn (Austria):

   • Age: 79

   • Political Alignment: Moderate Liberal

   • Doctrinal Focus: Bergoglian Pastoralists

   • Globalist Support Rating: 2

   • Why: Schönborn, a respected European cardinal, bridges moderate liberals and conservatives, making him a potential compromise candidate.

5. Raymond Leo Burke (United States):

   • Age: 76

   • Political Alignment: Very Conservative

   • Doctrinal Focus: Traditionalists

   • Globalist Support Rating: 0

   • Why: Burke is a vocal traditionalist, likely to attract votes from Conservatives and Traditionalists, though his chances of reaching a supermajority are slim.

Step 2: Simulate Voting Rounds

I’ll simulate the voting process round by round, with each round representing one ballot. Cardinals will vote based on their doctrinal focus and political alignment, with adjustments over time as blocs coalesce around leading candidates or shift to compromise candidates. I’ll also factor in the Globalist Support Rating to influence coalition dynamics (e.g., cardinals with higher ratings may lean toward Zuppi or Tagle).

Round 1: Initial Ballot

• Zuppi (Progressive): Supported by Progressives (15) and some Very Liberal Bergoglian Pastoralists (say 10 out of 53). Total: 25 votes.

• Tagle (Bergoglian Pastoralist): Supported by most Bergoglian Pastoralists (43 out of 53) and some Moderate Liberal Peripheries (10 out of 39). Total: 53 votes.

• Turkson (Peripheries): Supported by most Peripheries (29 out of 39) and a few Moderate Liberal Bergoglian Pastoralists (5 out of 53). Total: 34 votes.

• Schönborn (Compromise): Supported by some Moderate Liberal Bergoglian Pastoralists (5 out of 53) and a few Moderate Conservatives (5 out of 25). Total: 10 votes.

• Burke (Traditionalist): Supported by Traditionalists (5) and most Conservatives (20 out of 25). Total: 25 votes.

• Result: No candidate reaches the 90-vote threshold. Tagle leads with 53 votes, followed by Turkson (34), Zuppi (25), and Burke (25).

Round 2: Second Ballot

• Some cardinals start consolidating votes. Progressives and Very Liberals rally more behind Zuppi, while some Peripheries shift toward Tagle as a stronger candidate.

• Zuppi: Gains more Very Liberal Bergoglian Pastoralists (5 more). Total: 30 votes.

• Tagle: Gains more Peripheries (5 more) and a few Moderate Liberals from Schönborn’s camp (2). Total: 60 votes.

• Turkson: Loses some Peripheries to Tagle but retains core support. Total: 29 votes.

• Schönborn: Loses votes to Tagle but picks up a few more Moderate Conservatives (2 more). Total: 10 votes.

• Burke: Retains his bloc but gains no new votes. Total: 25 votes.

• Result: Tagle increases to 60 votes, Zuppi to 30. Still no supermajority.

Round 3: Third Ballot

• Turkson’s supporters see him stalling and begin shifting to Tagle as a compromise candidate. Schönborn’s small bloc also starts moving toward Tagle to block a progressive like Zuppi.

• Zuppi: Gains a few more Very Liberals (2 more). Total: 32 votes.

• Tagle: Gains most of Turkson’s Peripheries (15 more) and Schönborn’s supporters (5 more). Total: 80 votes.

• Turkson: Drops significantly as his bloc shifts. Total: 14 votes.

• Schönborn: Drops as his supporters move to Tagle. Total: 5 votes.

• Burke: Holds steady but gains no traction. Total: 25 votes.

• Result: Tagle is close to the threshold at 80 votes. Zuppi and Burke remain far behind.

Round 4: Fourth Ballot

• With Tagle nearing the threshold, more cardinals coalesce around him to avoid a prolonged conclave. Some of Zuppi’s and Turkson’s supporters shift to Tagle, while Burke’s bloc remains firm.

• Zuppi: Loses some support to Tagle (5 move). Total: 27 votes.

• Tagle: Gains from Zuppi (5) and Turkson (10 more). Total: 95 votes.

• Turkson: Drops further as his remaining supporters move to Tagle. Total: 4 votes.

• Schönborn: Remains minimal. Total: 4 votes.

• Burke: Holds steady. Total: 25 votes.

• Result: Tagle reaches 95 votes, surpassing the 90-vote supermajority needed. Luis Antonio Tagle is elected pope.

Step 3: Conclusion of the Simulation (Completed)

• Elected Pope: Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines), at the age of 67, becomes the new pope after 4 ballots (1 day of voting).

• Reasoning for Tagle’s Election:

  • Strong Starting Position: Tagle began with significant support from the Bergoglian Pastoralists (53 cardinals), the largest bloc in the College of Cardinals, due to his alignment with Pope Francis’s pastoral vision. His moderate liberal stance made him a natural fit for this group, and his position as Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization gave him visibility and influence.

  • Appeal to Peripheries: As a cardinal from the Philippines, Tagle represented the Global South, which resonated with the Peripheries bloc (39 cardinals). Many of these cardinals, especially those with moderate liberal leanings, saw Tagle as a candidate who could continue Francis’s focus on the margins of the Church while bridging diverse regions. His Globalist Support Rating of 2 indicated a balanced approach, making him acceptable to those open to global outreach without being overly progressive.

  • Coalition Building: Tagle’s moderate liberal alignment allowed him to attract votes from both Very Liberals (who might have preferred Zuppi but saw Tagle as a viable alternative) and Moderate Conservatives (who viewed him as a compromise over a more progressive candidate like Zuppi). Over the rounds, cardinals from Turkson’s and Schönborn’s camps shifted to Tagle as they recognized his momentum and broader appeal, a common dynamic in conclaves where consensus often forms around a candidate who can unite factions.

  • Contrast with Other Candidates:

    • Matteo Zuppi (Progressives) started with a smaller base (15 Progressives) and, despite gaining some Very Liberal support, couldn’t overcome the perception of being too progressive for the broader college. His high Globalist Support Rating (4) may have alienated more conservative cardinals.

    • Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson (Peripheries) had a strong regional appeal but lacked the broad doctrinal support Tagle commanded. As his votes stalled, his supporters shifted to Tagle, seeing him as a similar candidate with a better chance of winning.

    • Christoph Schönborn (Bergoglian Pastoralists) was a potential compromise candidate but started with too few votes and couldn’t compete with Tagle’s momentum.

    • Raymond Leo Burke (Traditionalists) held a steady but small bloc (25 votes from Conservatives and Traditionalists). His very conservative stance and low Globalist Support Rating (0) made him unpalatable to the majority, preventing him from gaining traction beyond his core supporters.

  • Conclave Dynamics: The rapid consolidation around Tagle reflects a historical tendency in conclaves to elect a pope within a few ballots when a candidate gains clear momentum. Tagle’s ability to unite the Bergoglian Pastoralists, Peripheries, and some moderates from other factions pushed him over the two-thirds threshold (90 votes) by the fourth ballot.

• Outcome:

  • Luis Antonio Tagle is elected pope on the fourth ballot with 95 votes, surpassing the required supermajority of 90.

  • Tagle, as the first Filipino pope, would likely continue many of Francis’s pastoral priorities, focusing on evangelization, the Global South, and a moderate approach to global engagement. His papacy might emphasize unity within the Church while addressing issues like poverty and migration, though his moderate stance (Globalist Support Rating of 2) suggests he’d be cautious about fully endorsing a borderless, globalist agenda involving corruption.

Additional Notes on the Simulation

• Accuracy of Simulation: This simulation is based on the data we’ve compiled (political alignment, doctrinal focus, and Globalist Support Rating) and reflects plausible voting patterns. However, real conclaves are influenced by personal relationships, private discussions, and the guidance of the Holy Spirit, which cannot be fully modeled.

• Black Hat Approach: The simulation used a competitive strategy lens by modeling how different factions (Progressives, Bergoglian Pastoralists, etc.) might strategize and shift alliances, akin to a black hat exercise where we anticipate the actions of competing groups.

So there we have it. The Philippino Cardinal Tagle ends up winning election in four quick rounds.

I had some issues with this result, however. Tagle is soft on homosexuality (never a good sign in a Church suffering from child sex scandals), and is also dismissive of the Traditionalist wing of the Church, going so far as to dismissively characterize Traditionalists for wanting to live in an "idealized past." I think continued hostility towards tradition is a bad avenue to pursue, especially when NGO funding is no longer guaranteed. By alienating the Traditionalists, what you're really doing is cutting off the Church from its best line of funding: faithful parishioners who attend mass on a regular basis.

Cardinal Tagle's comments and views are also remarkably similar to the kinds of things Pope Francis would say. The big critique of his papacy now is that he's been extremely detrimental to building unity in the Church and defending her against Globalist ambitions to remake the Church along materialist lines.

So for the second part of this experiment, I decided to change the weight on the Globalist factor. One scenario envisions a Church that is still all-in on Globalism and more interested in buttressing the corporate fiefdom against populist attacks. We can call that the Mammon Scenario.

The other scenario is the Holy Spirit Scenario. It envisions a conclave where the chief concern is now orthodox belief and defending the Church from those who want to change key teachings on homosexuality, women in the priesthood, synodality, and push things like borderless nations and climate change endeavors. The Holy Spirit Scenario is about encouraging the faith of Catholics in a world which is increasingly hostile to her.

Instead of posting the entire black hats for these, I'm just going to discuss the results.

Mammon Scenario

In the Mammon Scenario, the winner ends up being 66 year-old Jean-Claude Hollerich from Luxembourg after only three rounds of voting. Hollerich served as the relator-general of the Synod on Synodality (hereafter "Synod") that many on the traditional side of the aisle (clerics and laity alike) criticized for being an attempt to forever change the shape and function of the Church teaching and its hierarchy, forever atomizing it into localities that could be free to moderate orthodox teachings in order to accommodate modern trends.

Side note: If you didn't follow the Synod drama as it unfolded over the course of several years, (it thankfully ended up being unsubstantial) then it's hard to convey the extent to which it frightened faithful Catholics around the globe. The Synod was so disruptive in fact, that it moved many of the bishops in Africa who normally would've been considered Liberal further to the right. Something to consider as we'll see further down.

Vocally, Hollerich is not on record with statements as anti-Traditionalist as Cardinal Tagle of the Philippines. But his actions at the Synod spoke volumes. Though "all" were invited to contribute, anyone who disagreed with the Synod's focus to change Church teachings were summarily ignored in the final product. According to George Weigel:

"If not wholly absent from Synod-2024, this fundamental teaching of Vatican II was at least muted. As more than one Synod participant mused, if the proverbial Man from Mars had scrutinized the Synod’s Instrumentum Laboris (Working Document) and then followed its discussions this past month, he might think that the only two “actors” in the Catholic Church were bishops and women, locked in a constant struggle for power (with “power” understood as who-gets-to-tell-others-what-to-do). Lumen Gentium’s Christocentricity and Vatican II’s theology of the Church as communion would have been hard for our interplanetary visitor to find."

Regarding Hollerich's Globalist bona fides, Grok points out: "Hollerich’s election reflects his alignment with the Mammon Scenario’s goals. As a progressive, he’s likely to advocate for LGBTQ+ inclusion, climate action, and a decentralized Church structure, all of which could facilitate globalist funding through partnerships with NGOs and governments."

It doesn't sound like a Hollerich papacy would be what's best for the Church. But then again as we've seen with Pope Francis, the Holy Spirit works in mysterious ways.

And speaking of the Holy Spirit...

Holy Spirit Scenario

This scenario was a little tricky, with the Conservatives and Traditionalists splitting their vote three ways between cardinals Burke, Besungu, and Ma. Both sides needed ample support from Bergolians in order to grow their vote and Ma had to bow out by the second round in order to ensure that a Traditionalist support consolidated around the other two. In the end, after 3 rounds of voting the 65 year-old Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of the Congo won.

According to this scenario however, Cardinal Besungu needed the support of both Conservative Burkeans and those Bergolians from the peripheries that were intellectually flexible enough to recognize the chaos done by Francis and want to avoid yet another papacy fraught with confusion and frustration.

Cardinal Besungu's ascension relies heavily on a growing realization that the Church is suffering from "Francis Fatigue" and longs for clarity and strong doctrine.

I'm not saying that's impossible or even unlikely. It all depends on the extent to which these periphery cardinals recognize that the Globalist jig is up or that even a Francis lite could irreparably harm the Church by stifling its fastest-growing segment: Traditionalists. The political defection of African popes with regards to the Synod further underscores that this could be a real possibility if there was a similar yet less public reaction by fellow periphery cardinals in Asia. Given the overall Conservative focus and quiet demeanor of Asian culture, this seems even more likely.

Note too that Besungu is no Burke or Sarah. According the source data, he's neutral in regards to Globalist backing and is only recognized as a moderate Conservative. He's voiced support for climate change and was an active participant in the Synod. Part of his appeal that gets him the win is his status as a periphery cardinal. This means that a more mainstream Conservative like Burke would face even stronger headwinds.

Comparing the Scenarios

Overall, I see the victory of Besungu the second least likely of the three scenarios here (which also makes him the second most likely given there's only three scenarios). Hollerich is too niche and has no periphery support. His elevation would be seen as a shot across the bow by Conservatives and Traditionalists.

Tagle is the winner of our vanilla simulation and I think that also positions him as the most likely of the three to win. Let's say that if there's a near 100% chance that one of these three cardinals will become pope, he's sitting at 66.7% likely in my book. Besungu is about 19.8% likely and Hollerich rounds out at 13.5%. At least as things stand now.

I believe that if Tagle were to take a public stance in support of allowing more freedom among the Traditionalists, that he might as well start getting measured for a white cassock. The reality is that the Traditionalists may be more comfortable looking the other way concerning a pope playing footsie with the media over blessing gay unions so long as they have a local community to go to ground with. That's a very low bar in my book and very attainable.

Dark Horse Possibility

There are of course dark horses in the mix. In a separate session I asked Grok to identify some possibilities based not on their likelihood but their unlikelihood. One of the possibilities mentioned by Grok is Cardinal Mykola Bychok from the Ukrainian Catholic Church. I found this incredibly intriguing. I think Bychok might be a temptation for the Globalists whose paymasters desperately want to use Ukraine as a starting point for all-out war with Russia. Ukraine is, after all, the Globalist cause celebre which for some reason they can't seem to get over. As a bonus, Bychok even looks like Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Cardinal Mykola Byochok (left) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (right) (pictures from Catholic Weekly and Wikipedia)

The funny thing is Bychok is a Conservative so maybe instead of dark horse we could call him a Trojan horse. At 45, he's young -- normally a huge strike against him. But maybe with the Church's current financial struggles resulting from the loss of taxpayer money, people will want to have someone who's going to be around long enough to want to be accountable for how money is acquired and spent.

We've had two short-term popes who've been notably unsuccessful in the fighting Church corruption. It stands to reason then that what we may need is someone whose papacy can't be waited out.

Also, electing a young pope would be energizing for the laity while also striking a nostalgic note among those who recall the election of Pope John Paul II. Would Bychok fulfill the Globalists' designs to foment war and declare a Crusade against Russia upon his crowning? I believe that's unlikely. Here again, he's more likely to act as a kind of intermediary for peace, which would further enhance his JPII vibe.

Consider too that he serves an ethnic Catholic rite and not the Novus Ordo. This means he likely has a profound appreciation for traditional forms of worship and would thus be hugely simpatico with Latin Mass enthusiasts. His alternate rite background also places him in a good position to dialog with Orthodox Christians.

If the college of cardinals wanted to signal a desire to foster unity within the Church and greater unity with Christians around the world including Orthodox Christians, Cardinal Bychok would send a very strong and very positive signal.

Reverse Black Hat: What it Would Take for a Traditionalist Pope

Finally, I wanted to do the opposite of a black hat and run the scenario in reverse. I asked Grok how do we get to a Traditionalist pope. What would have to happen in the conclave to produce this scenario and who would be the most likely beneficiary? Sarah? Burke? Bychok? (There are others, I understand but time and resources were limited.)

According to Grok, the most likely winner among Traditionalists would be someone from the peripheries like Sarah. This scenario relies on the Conservatives and Traditionalists going lockstep behind just a few candidates and then coalescing behind at least two while the Bergolians and Progressives continue to split votes.

The scenario played out over the course of 14 rounds, so we're talking more than three solid days of voting. As the process wears on, the Traditionalist candidate capitalizes on 20 of the 40 peripheries which are morally Conservative coalescing behind Sarah. Finally the Bergolian pastoralists with low affinity for Globalism aligned behind Sarah in the name of unity.

According to Grok, "Sarah’s papacy would likely emphasize doctrinal clarity, support for persecuted Christians, and a return to traditional liturgy, fostering unity with Traditionalists and focusing on the Church’s spiritual mission over globalist agendas."

Final Thoughts on Running a Conclave with AI

This was a very fun and thought-provoking exercise. You can watch the whole process unfold yourself by checking out this link:

https://x.com/i/grok/share/epYL8uONiDdBUhDwMGfPKIKAk

When I heard about the advancements of AI in prison, I was leery of the threat it represented to researchers like myself. Thus far, my experiences with AI have underscored its usefulness as an analysis tool.

At both HaynesBoone and LoneStar Analysis, my job was to be human equivalent of AI before the advent of AI. Whenever there was a question, or research request, no matter how obscure, it was my job to find the data, organize it, and analyze what it all meant.

Grok did most of the heavy lifting here saving me long hours banging away at my terminal. I didn't have to comb the internet for the odd nugget of relevant information hidden in the data on obscure pages and then duplicate that process over each and every cardinal. It's not that I didn't like doing that, it's that it was very time consuming.

Also, my approach -- conceptualizing the black hat, and choosing the data types relevant to my theoretical exploration -- all that came from me and was informed by my personal experience as a professional in the field of competitive intelligence. That was the essential element of human input that formed the outcomes (which will be tested soon enough). I didn't feel like I was watching some parody of human reasoning that's so obvious when interacting with other AIs. Grok gathered an ocean of data and then pretended to be over 133 separate people -- something that's not very possible at the individual human scale. This kind of project would be impossible without AI assistance.

That said, Grok did make some mistakes. More than once his answers were incomplete, stopping in the middle of a sentence. When I pointed out that he seemed to have drifted off, he picked right where he left off and completed his thoughts. It's the kind of quirk that's easy to spot.

But there were other mistakes that weren't so obvious at first glance. The original spreadsheet and analysis did not include Cardinal Bychok. This was odd as Grok was the one who suggested Bychok as a dark horse to me during a separate session the night prior. He obviously was aware of Cardinal Bychok but for some reason "forgot" to include him a separate exercise. Unfortunately, Grok doesn't remember conversations between sessions, but you can remind him by feeding him past conversation links links like the one above.

As to why Grok "forgot" the youngest of the cardinals? Who can say? According to Grok, it was an oversight. Understandable given the large size of the data set. Overall, he still outshines many of the researchers I've known professionally in terms of speed and accuracy. The expression doesn't apply here but it's the only one in our language that fits for how I feel about Grok's oversight:

You're only human.

But this is just one attempt at a simulation and Black Hats always work better with more input. What other factors do you think should be considered? What are your thoughts on using artificial intelligence to peer into the conclave process?

Matt da Silva once worked at the highest levels of government trust as a Japanese and Mandarin Navy linguist. In addition to working at the tip of the intel spear, he also has the distinction of having served 18 months in federal prison for his involvement in Jan 6. Now he's pardoned and using his intel analysis and writing skills in defense of the 21st century civil rights movement known as America First. You can find more of his writings at his substack (which is free). You may also want to give him a follow on X and TruthSocial or watch his videos on his Rumble channel, J6 Matt Cast. Please subscribe!

Wanna put a tip in the jar? https://buymeacoffee.com/j6matt_cast

Substack: https://matthewdasilva.substack.com/

Truth Social: https://truthsocial.com/@Matthew_da_Silva

X: https://x.com/EMassSurvivor